The CEPR Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is composed of nine CEPR researchers, establishes the chronology of.
Table of contents
- What are business cycles and how do they affect the economy?
- The need for a business cycle dating committee
A companion paper written by Binnur Balkan for this Committee available here explores the impact this new method would have had on the past findings of this Committee. Furthermore, note that the Committee has dropped since October the previous requirement that peaks or troughs mark turning points in economic activity in most countries of the euro area.
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What are business cycles and how do they affect the economy?
Data on these official business cycle turning points and dates are available from the NBER website at http: How do NBER recessions differ from the common description of a recession as, "a period when real gross domestic product declines for two consecutive quarters? The NBER's seven-member Business Cycle Dating Committee examines monthly economic indicators that provide a good industry-wide economic perspective to date business cycles. They use monthly economic indicators such as employment, real personal income, manufacturing sales, and industrial production , rather than quarterly real Gross Domestic Product GDP.
The monthly data allow the NBER to be more precise in setting business cycle turning points; the monthly data also typically are not subject to the same magnitude of revisions as are the quarterly GDP data. The Business Cycle Dating Committee also examines the data to evaluate the depth of a downturn to determine whether it is sufficient to qualify as a recession. The article provides a review of the process and indicators the NBER Committee uses to evaluate potential business cycle turning points.
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The need for a business cycle dating committee
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